|Usuario :||El INDEC y los manejos políticos de la actual administración . . .|
El INDEC y los manejos políticos de la actual administración (en inglés) - 18-10-06
From: JAVIER KULESZ, UBS TRADING S.A.
In a corner of a weekly newspaper (Perfil) there was an article on Sunday suggesting that President Kirchner has already decided to remove Lelio Marmora as the head of Indec, the national institute of statistics in charge of, among other things, in the monthly estimation of the CPI.
We know from a first hand source that a few months ago, Secretary of Commerce Moreno, the price-control czar, tried with Indec authorities to get the list of retail stores Indec uses to conduct its surveys. The Indec official refused to give this list to Moreno, not least because existing laws protect the secrecy of this information, prohibiting Indec from releasing the information. Moreno left that meeting quite unhappy and without the information. We really don't know if Marmora's removal, IF IT EVER HAPPENS, has to do with this misshap with Moreno, but in any event, we suspect it would leave a bad after taste among investors.
Inflation in Argentina is such a highly socially-sensitive issue, and to have the head of Indec removed one year before the election would cast serious on the integrity of the official statistics, primarily the CPI (and therefore the CER used to adjust inflation-linked bonds).
The same weekly, also referred to what has been rumored for some time, that Secretary of Finance Alfredo MacLaughlin is fed up with his inability to influence in the appointments of key positions within his area and therefore, he is getting ready to resign. The story mentions that he is waiting for the right moment, likely the completion of the Paris Club debt renegotiation. He has become a figure within the Economy Ministry that markets have come to trust, and his departure, if and when it happens, would be seen as a negative development.
On a separate and important note involving MacLaughlin, Clarin reported last Saturday that his office is getting ready to launch the second tranche of the Bonar 2013 for US$500 million. The transaction could take place as soon as this week. A third tranche for another US$500 million should be expected at a later date. All these monies would go to pre-finance 2007.
Within the past three years, UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has received compensation for investment banking services from Argentina.